how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics Fukuyama, Francis. ebrary, Inc text bibliography Electronic books. dcu Washington, D.C Brookings Institution Press c2007 2007 monographic eng

electronic

electronic resource

vi, 198 p. "Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher. The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index. Francis Fukuyama, editor. "An American Interest Book." Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index. Electronic reproduction. Palo Alto, Calif. : ebrary, 2013. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries. n-us--- Emergency management United States International relations HV551.3 .B57 2007eb 363.34/7 http://site.ebrary.com/lib/rucke/Doc?id=10193747 http://site.ebrary.com/lib/rucke/Doc?id=10193747 CaPaEBR 070709 ebr10193747